Mexico – The pressure of the United States on Mexican security policy has increased in the last month after the failed operation against the son of Joaquin "el Chapo" Guzman and the massacre on Monday to a Mormon family, which would deteriorate the relationship between the presidents Donald Trump Y Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
The military aid that Trump offered on Tuesday to fight the drug cartels, after the murder of nine members of the Mormon family LeBaron on the Chihuahua border with Sonora, is a new pretext to use Mexico for political purposes, warns Efe Helden de Paz, international security consultant.
Although the expert considers the deployment of US troops in Mexico unlikely, she states that Washington would take advantage of these episodes, near the border, to accuse the Mexican authorities of incompetence and relaunch the Merida Initiative or Plan Mexico, signed during the Felipe Calderon six-year term ( 2006-2012).
"What they can do is put pressure on Mexico, like what happened with Calderon, say 'I need you to hand me over to bonnets, I need the apprehension of certain people so that it can be seen that we are hitting very hard,'" says De Paz, who is also a group security advisor Proposal Mx.
The attack on the LeBaron family sparked criticism from Republican senators from the United States and Trump, who asked Mexico on Twitter to "wage war" against the cartels with the help of Washington.
The leader of the White House had already threatened to send soldiers in a call with the former Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto in January 2017.
Sovereignty and distant background
In reaction, Lopez Obrador defended in his morning conference the "sovereignty of the country" despite recognizing that he would accept help "within the framework of current international legality" and that the dialogue has "accelerated" after the failed operation in Sinaloa that sought to capture Ovid Guzman, son of "El Chapo" Guzman, in Culiacan on October 17, which unleashed chaos.
De Paz comments that the exchange and presence of US intelligence agents is something that has been going on for a long time and that the deployment of troops "would be very expensive" for Washington, so they are more likely to invest in training and weapons.
That is what William Jensen, an associate of the Mexican Council of International Relations (Comexi) agrees, who points out that the last precedents of Washington's military intervention are the US occupation of Veracruz, in 1914, and the punitive expedition against the revolutionary Francisco Villa in Chihuahua, in 1916.
"Both countries have always collaborated in matters of security. Cooperation has intensified since the United States, in the 1970s, declares the 'war' on drugs and promotes an agenda of criminalization and militarization in Latin America," says the specialist in International public policies
The fear of a "war"
This "war" perspective, to which Trump has appealed, is what worries defenders such as Edgar Cortez, project coordinator of the Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy, because "in addition to being a failure" they could "condition operational decisions " of the government.
"In addition, in that logic of the United States or of President Trump, he thinks that he solves the problem he has, but the human and social costs are obviously living on this side of the border," he argues.
Cortez cites the recent deployment of the National Guard, a security corps made up of military and police, to contain the migration from Central America to the United States as "the clearest example" of the impact of White House pressure on Mexican domestic politics .
The human rights defender believes that this interference could move to other areas, such as initiatives that seek to legalize marijuana and decriminalize other drugs, something that the US government opposes.
On the other hand, specialists agree that both Trump and Lopez Obrador could shield themselves in rhetoric to avoid issues such as gun control, in the case of the United States, and a strengthening of institutions and the pursuit of justice, from the Mexican side.
"We have heard more of the same (from the Mexican Government), it is very appealing to the issue of autonomy, but I think it is not enough, especially after this terrible massacre in Chihuahua, because what it should have is really a rethinking of the security strategy, "concludes Cortez.